Bank of Canada rate hike odds for October 28: what they mean for your renewal in Kelowna and Vancouver

Will the Bank of Canada raise rates on October 28? Less likely than not, but far from ruled out. After seven straight holds at 2.25%, markets put the odds of an October hike at about one in three as of October 6, 2026, down from roughly 50-50 in late September, and nearly every forecaster expects the next move to be up, most of them between this fall and mid-2027. A hike moves prime, now 4.45%, and every variable-rate mortgage moves with it within a day or two. My read: variable rates are more likely to go up than down from here. The renewal question is whether today’s fixed rates have already charged you for that.

I’m Ash Simpson at Insight Mortgage, a licensed BC mortgage broker in Kelowna. This guide covers the odds, what a hike does to a real payment, and what renewal looks like for a typical Kelowna mortgage and a typical Metro Vancouver mortgage, both taken out in 2021 at about 2.2% and coming due now.

General information, not legal, tax or financial advice. Worked examples use my lender sheet of October 14, 2026 (best insured five-year fixed 4.69%, uninsured 4.89%, five-year variable prime minus 0.75% = 3.70%); live rates elsewhere update automatically. Market odds and forecasts are as of October 6, 2026. All rates are on approved credit and subject to change, and lender policies vary.

What are the odds the Bank of Canada raises rates on October 28?

About one in three, as of October 6, 2026. That’s what traders in overnight swaps were pricing for a hike on October 28, according to Bloomberg, down from roughly even in late September. Most economists expect a hold in October, but nearly all of them expect the next move to be up.

The Bank held its policy rate at 2.25% on September 2, its seventh straight hold since the October 2025 cut. It kept the rate steady but said the upside risks to its inflation forecast have increased, and that it is prepared to adjust policy as needed.

Markets heard that. Heading into September 2, traders saw a hold as close to certain, about 94% according to LSEG data. Two weeks later the October 28 meeting had become a coin flip, tilted slightly toward a hike, and it was still roughly even on September 25. The odds then eased, to about 40% on October 1 and about one in three by October 6, according to Bloomberg. Weaker U.S. jobs data and lower oil prices cooled hike bets. Traders haven’t given up on hikes, though. They still price more than a full percentage point of increases over the next 12 months, about four quarter-point hikes, with roughly one priced by the December 9 decision (my calculation from Montreal Exchange CORRA futures).

The next decision is Wednesday, October 28, with a new Monetary Policy Report, and the one after that is December 9. Three releases before October 28 will move the odds: the September jobs report on October 9, September inflation on the morning of October 19, and the Bank’s own Business Outlook Survey and consumer expectations survey later that day.

Why would the Bank raise rates when growth is this soft?

Oil. Brent crude traded above US$100 a barrel through late September with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, and damage to refineries has pushed fuel prices up even further. It slipped just below US$100 in early October. In a September 21 speech in Halifax, Governor Tiff Macklem said recent gasoline prices have been consistent with an oil price almost US$40 higher than where it actually is. If oil stays near $100, he said, inflation should edge up in the coming months.

Headline inflation was 3.0% in August, driven by gasoline, which was up 22.8% from a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, prices rose 2.4%, and the Bank’s preferred core measures sat close to 2%. That gap is the debate: the Bank says it has seen little evidence so far that the energy shock is spreading into other prices. Macklem laid out both sides. The Bank doesn’t want to raise rates and restrain growth if price pressures are contained, “but nor do we want to be too slow to respond” if they become more persistent.

The pressure is also coming from outside Canada. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised rates on September 16 for the first time since 2023, and bond yields have climbed around the world. Canada’s two-year bond yield, which tracks where markets expect the Bank’s rate to go, closed at 3.43% on September 24, its highest since July 2024, according to Bloomberg.

There’s a case for holding, too. New U.S. tariffs followed the breakdown of trade talks in August, and Macklem said they could roughly halve growth in the fourth quarter, to below 1%. The economy was flat in July. Unemployment is 6.4%, and wage growth is the slowest since 2017 outside the pandemic years. That is why several of the big-bank economists still expect the Bank to wait until 2027.

What are the banks and economists forecasting?

Most expect a hold on October 28. Manulife has called hikes in October and December, Scotiabank expects one by the end of the year, most of the others look to early or mid-2027, and BMO sees no hikes until the trade fight eases.

Forecaster	Latest call (date reported)
Manulife	Hikes on October 28 and December 9 (September 25)
Scotiabank	Policy rate at 2.50% by the end of 2026 and 3.00% by the end of 2027 (forecast of September 9)
Capital Economics	No hike in October, but a close call (September 18)
TD	Hold is the base case, at roughly even odds; one or two hikes the alternative (September 23)
RBC	Hold through 2026, gradual hikes in 2027 starting in the first quarter (September 11)
Desjardins	Hold through 2026, first hike in the first quarter of 2027 (September 18)
National Bank	2.25% through 2026, 2.50% in early 2027 and 2.75% by mid-2027 (forecast of September 4)
CIBC	Trade risks give the Bank room to hold into 2027, when a hike could follow; the timing will be “a made-in-Canada story” (October 6)
BMO	An October hike unlikely; “no rate hikes unless and until we have less trauma on the trade front” (October 2)
Bloomberg survey of economists	Median forecast: first hike in June 2027 (September 25)

Read that table carefully. Nobody on it expects rates to fall. The disagreement is about timing: this fall, next year, or, for BMO, not until the trade fight eases.

How does a Bank of Canada hike reach your mortgage?

Two separate machines set mortgage rates, and it pays to keep them apart. The Bank of Canada moves variable rates directly. Fixed rates are set by the bond market, which moves on what it expects the Bank to do.

That is why fixed rates rose through September while the Bank sat still: bond traders moved first. A hike on October 28 would move variable rates the next day. Fixed rates would move mainly if the decision changes what bond markets expect from here.

Here is my lender sheet today, and what moves each rate:

Where have mortgage rates been since 2021?

Many of the mortgages renewing this fall were signed in 2021, near the bottom of the cycle. In August 2021 the chartered banks’ average rate on new insured fixed mortgages of five years or longer was 2.21%, and new insured variable mortgages averaged 1.54%, according to Bank of Canada data. Then the Bank raised its rate from 0.25% to 5.00% between March 2022 and July 2023, and the average new insured variable rate peaked at 7.68% in July 2023. By July 2026, the latest month published, new insured fixed mortgages of five years or longer averaged 4.05% and variable 3.75%. Fixed rates have risen since.

Mortgage rates and the Bank of Canada rate, 2020 to 2026

Average rates on new insured mortgages at Canada’s chartered banks, by month

Fixed, 5 years or longer, averageVariable, averageBank of Canada policy rate (dashed)Dot: best 5-year fixed on my sheet, October 14, 2026

That gap is the renewal shock. Bank of Canada staff estimated in July 2025 that five-year fixed borrowers renewing in 2026 would see payments about 20% higher on average than in December 2024, and the Bank’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report put the increase for five-year fixed-payment mortgages taken out during the pandemic and renewing over the following 12 months at about 15%. Both estimates came before September’s jump in fixed rates.

What happens to a variable-rate mortgage if the Bank hikes?

Lenders set prime at the Bank’s policy rate plus 2.20%, so a quarter-point hike lifts prime from today’s 4.45% by 0.25%. The 5-year variable on my lender sheet, prime minus 0.75% (3.70% as of October 22), rises by the same amount.

What that does to you depends on which kind of variable you have:

• Adjustable payment: your payment goes up with each hike. On a $500,000 balance with 20 years left, each 0.25% adds about $64 a month. On a 25-year amortization it works out to roughly $13 a month per $100,000 owed.
• Fixed payment: your payment stays the same, but more of it goes to interest and less to the balance. If rates rise far enough you reach your trigger rate, where the payment covers only interest, and your lender can ask for a higher payment or a lump sum.

Here is what that means on a typical new mortgage in each market. CMHC’s average new mortgage at the end of 2025 was $453,600 in the Kelowna area and $536,226 in Metro Vancouver, against $482,618 across BC and $360,597 nationally.

A lot of borrowers are exposed. Variable made up 42% of the mortgages Canada’s chartered banks extended in February, according to CMHC, and Equifax told an industry event in September that 73% of the mortgages it now sees are variable or shorter-term fixed.

Have fixed rates already priced in the hikes?

Largely, if bond markets are right. Fixed mortgage rates follow the 5-year Government of Canada bond yield, not the Bank’s rate, and that yield rose from about 3.35% on September 1 to 3.69% on September 23, its highest since May 2024. It held near that level through September 29, then eased to 3.63% by October 5. Lenders raised fixed rates through September, and the big banks kept going: CIBC and TD raised select 3- and 5-year fixed rates by 0.20% on September 29, and RBC raised its fixed rates by 0.10% to 0.20% on October 6 while trimming its variable-rate discount by 0.20% for new borrowers. In the last week of September, most of the non-bank lenders on my rate sheet raised their best 5-year fixed again, by about 0.20%. On my October 5 sheet the best insured 5-year fixed was still 4.54%, but only because one lender hadn’t moved yet: it was the only one of the 14 national lenders on the sheet still under 4.70%.

That matters for the renewal decision. The bond market is still betting on roughly four hikes over the next 12 months, and fixed rates are priced off those same bonds, so they carry that bet. David Larock of Integrated Mortgage Planners put it this way in September: “The bond market is pricing in some worst-case scenarios.” If those scenarios don’t happen, a fixed rate locked at the top of the spike ends up expensive. Broker Ron Butler’s rule of thumb is that once fixed sits a full point above variable, borrowers who can handle some risk should look hard at variable. On my sheet today it’s 4.69% fixed versus 3.70% variable; on my October 14 sheet that was a gap of 0.99 points, a hair under his line.

Fixed or variable at renewal: what do the numbers say?

Here is a real renewal shape: a $500,000 balance with 20 years left, renewing now. On my lender sheet of October 14, 2026, the best insured 5-year fixed was 4.69%: about $3,202 a month and $106,800 of interest over the five years. The 5-year variable was prime minus 0.75%, or 3.70%, which starts at about $2,944 a month. I ran the variable through five paths for the Bank’s rate and compared the interest paid over the same five years. These are insured rates, the best tier. If your mortgage is uninsured, both rates are higher and the gap between them can be wider or narrower, so it’s worth running your own numbers.

The break-even is a little over four quarter-point hikes that arrive within the next year and stay for the rest of the term. Fewer hikes, later hikes, or hikes that get reversed once the oil shock fades all leave variable ahead. Five or more that stick put fixed ahead. At four hikes, close to what markets price, variable is only about $1,600 ahead over five years, so the cushion is thin. So “variable rates are going up” and “fixed is the better deal” are two different claims. The first looks likely to me. The second needs more hikes than the market already expects.

Rates move, so I’ll rerun this table when they do. The math is set out under Sources and method below.

What does renewal look like in Kelowna and Vancouver this fall?

CMHC’s figures, based on Equifax data, put the average new mortgage in the third quarter of 2021 at $450,369 in the Kelowna area and $569,937 in Metro Vancouver. Many of those mortgages are coming up for renewal now. I’ve assumed each was a five-year fixed at 2.21%, the chartered banks’ average for new insured fixed mortgages of five years or longer in August 2021, on a 25-year amortization with no extra payments, and that each renews now with 20 years left at the best insured rates on my October 14 sheet.

Three things stand out:

• The jump is the same 24% in both cities. Vancouver’s is bigger in dollars only because the mortgage is.
• Variable softens the first year, then catches up. After four hikes its payment is about the same as fixing today, and it stays exposed to more.
• Stretching back to 25 years softens it, if your lender agrees. It cuts the increase by about two-thirds in both examples (a little over half at uninsured rates), but you pay more interest over the life of the mortgage. Insured mortgages usually allow it only as hardship relief, and at a new lender a longer amortization turns the switch into a refinance that has to pass the stress test. Bank of Canada staff estimated that about half of borrowers facing higher payments could erase the increase by extending five years; when the rate roughly doubles, as it does here, extending softens the jump but doesn’t erase it.

If your mortgage is uninsured, as many Vancouver mortgages are, fixed rates on my sheet start about 0.20% higher: 4.89% on October 14, which adds about $41 a month on the Kelowna balance and $51 on the Vancouver one. Want your own numbers run? Book a free 30-minute review and bring your renewal letter. The same math applies across the Interior: see my Kamloops renewal guide and my Vernon page, and the step-by-step for shopping a renewal is in my Kelowna renewal guide.

What do the Vancouver and Kelowna housing markets mean for your renewal?

Your home’s value doesn’t set your rate on its own, but it decides how much room you have if the new payment is a stretch: whether you can refinance, add a line of credit, or land in a better rate tier. Here is where the two markets stood in August.

September figures came out after I first wrote this. Metro Vancouver’s composite benchmark slipped to $1,075,900, down 5.5% from a year earlier, with detached down 7.3% and sales 25% below the 10-year September average (Greater Vancouver REALTORS, October 2). The Central Okanagan’s September benchmarks were $1,057,200 for single-family homes (up 3.4% from a year earlier), $696,600 for townhouses (down 5.5%) and $496,700 for condos (up 2.0%), according to the Association of Interior REALTORS (October 5). The Okanagan’s monthly benchmarks swing a lot, so I wouldn’t read much into one month.

What that means at renewal:

• Where your equity came from depends on the city. In Vancouver, paydown did the work: five years of payments cleared about 16% of the original balance in the example above while the benchmark barely moved. In the Okanagan, single-family and townhouse owners also gained from prices; condo owners did not.
• Refinancing to cushion a payment jump has limits. A refinance is capped at 80% of today’s value, priced at uninsured rates and qualified at your contract rate plus 2% (or 5.25%, if that’s higher). Owners whose values fell most in the year to August, Vancouver detached (−7.2%), Vancouver apartments (−6.6%) and Okanagan condos (−5.5%), have the least room. I compare the two routes in renewal vs refinance, and the Okanagan details are on my Kelowna refinance page.
• Your loan-to-value can change your rate. On uninsured mortgages, lenders often price by loan-to-value, and 65% or less usually gets the best rate. If five years of payments have taken you under a line, ask for the better tier. Insured mortgages usually keep insured pricing at renewal or on a straight switch, as long as you don’t add money or lengthen the amortization.

Serious arrears are still rare: at the end of 2025 about 1 mortgage in 480 in both Vancouver and Kelowna was 90 days or more behind. But the share is rising: CMHC says it was up 31% in a year in Vancouver and 24% across BC. If the new payment looks unmanageable, talk to your lender or a broker before you miss one. Options like a longer amortization or a blended rate are much easier to get while your payment record is clean.

Should you renew now, get a rate hold, or wait?

If your mortgage matures in the next four months, I wouldn’t wait for the renewal letter. A federally regulated lender only has to send it 21 days before your term ends, and a renewal you ignore can go through automatically on the lender’s terms. The steps below are what I’d do in general; your lender, penalty and plans can change the answer.

• Lock something in now. Many lenders let you renew without a penalty from 120 days before maturity; TD and RBC both do. A new lender can usually hold a rate for up to about 120 days, depending on the lender. With fixed rates rising, a hold caps your rate without locking you into it.
• Shop the renewal, then decide. Since November 21, 2024, an uninsured borrower who moves the same balance and amortization of a stand-alone mortgage to another federally regulated lender at renewal doesn’t have to pass the stress test; a mortgage inside a combined plan or readvanceable line doesn’t qualify. Insured mortgages can switch without requalifying under the Canadian Mortgage Charter. Adding money or stretching the amortization turns it into a refinance, which is stress-tested at your contract rate plus 2% (or 5.25%, if that’s higher).
• Match the term to your plans, not the headlines. A 3-year fixed at 4.54% or a 2-year at 4.54% (as of October 22) brings your next renewal sooner, which helps if this spike fades by 2028 or 2029 and hurts if it doesn’t.

If you’re renewing in the next few months, these are the dates to plan around:

For many renewers this fall the decision is also a payment shock. The last big group of five-year fixed-payment mortgages taken out during the pandemic, about 12% of all mortgages, renews in the 12 months from May 2026 with payments about 15% higher on average, the Bank of Canada estimated in its May Financial Stability Report. Renewers in CMHC’s January 2026 survey reported payments up $375 a month on average.

Already in a variable? Should you lock in now?

You can usually convert a variable to a fixed rate at any time without a penalty, but the fine print differs by lender. First National lets you convert at any time with no fee, into a term at least as long as what you have left, and you can’t switch back. RBC allows any fixed term from 1 to 10 years. Scotiabank’s Flex Value requires a term longer than what’s left. TD asks for a new term of at least three years, or what’s left if that’s shorter. You’ll lock in at your own lender’s current rate for that term, which may not be the best rate available elsewhere, so ask before you sign.

If you have a fixed-payment variable, find your trigger rate now, not after the next hike. And weigh the flexibility you give up: breaking a closed variable usually costs three months’ interest, while breaking a fixed usually costs the greater of three months’ interest or the interest rate differential, which can be far larger (how break penalties work).

If an extra $64 a month per hike on a $500,000 mortgage would keep you up at night, locking in can be the right call even when the math is close. If it wouldn’t, the table above is the question to answer: do you think the Bank will do more than the market already expects?

Which renewal option fits you?

Here is how I frame the four common choices this fall, with the payment each gives on the Kelowna example above ($378,933 owing, 20 years left, October 14 rates).

Buying in Kelowna or Vancouver this fall?

Buyers feel the same forces through the stress test. You qualify at the higher of 5.25% or your contract rate plus 2%, so on my October 14 sheet a 4.69% five-year fixed meant qualifying at 6.69%. Every quarter-point rise in fixed rates cuts the most you can borrow by about 2% to 2.5%, depending on your amortization (my calculation).

• Get a pre-approval with a rate hold now. It protects your rate, and your qualifying rate, while you shop, usually for 90 to 120 days depending on the lender (more on pre-approvals in Kelowna).
• Know what variable does to your approval. With a variable at 3.70%, you qualify at 5.70%, which lets you borrow about 9.5% more than at 6.69% (my calculation). Treat that as room, not a target: every hike after you buy comes straight out of your budget.

Buying your first home? I ran the full numbers for first-time buyers, including the income you need for a condo, townhouse or house in Kelowna and Vancouver and how far prices would have to fall, in Can first-time buyers afford Kelowna or Vancouver now?

My read

This is my opinion as a mortgage broker, not a promise about where rates go. I think prime is more likely to go up than down over the next year. The Bank has said it doesn’t want to be too slow, oil is still near US$100 with no reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in sight, and bond markets have already done part of the tightening for it. I’d rate at least one hike by December as more likely than not.

That still doesn’t make fixed an automatic choice at renewal, because fixed rates already assume several hikes. Here is how I’m working through renewals this fall:

• If a payment jump of a few hundred dollars would hurt, take the certainty of a fixed term, and look at 3 years as well as 5.
• If your budget has room and you’d act the day hikes start to outrun what’s priced in, variable at prime minus 0.75% still has a head start, and a variable is cheaper to get out of.
• If your maturity is within 120 days, get a rate hold in place now. It costs nothing.
• Whatever you choose, don’t sign the renewal your lender mails you without comparing it first.

Mortgage terms in plain English

Sources and method

Rates in this article come from my lender sheet and update automatically, except in the worked examples, which use my October 14, 2026 sheet: best insured 5-year fixed 4.69%, 3-year 4.49%, 2-year 4.39%, variable prime minus 0.75% = 3.70%, best insurable 5-year fixed 4.69% and uninsured 4.89%, HELOC prime plus 0.50% = 4.95%, and an insured qualifying rate of 6.69%. Market odds are as reported on the dates shown, last checked October 6, 2026; the December pricing is my calculation from Montreal Exchange one-month CORRA futures prices on October 6, and the share of lenders under 4.70% comes from my October 5 sheet. The $500,000 table assumes 20 years remaining, semi-annual compounding, variable payments that reset at each rate change, hikes on October 28 and December 9, 2026 and then one every two to three months in 2027 (in the reversal path, four cuts three months apart in 2029), and no prepayments or penalties. The Kelowna and Vancouver renewals use CMHC’s average new mortgage for the third quarter of 2021, a 25-year amortization at 2.21% (the Bank of Canada’s average rate on new insured five-year-and-over fixed mortgages at chartered banks in August 2021), no prepayments, and the same five-year rate paths. The per-hike figures use CMHC’s fourth-quarter 2025 averages and a 25-year amortization. These are scenarios, not forecasts.

• Bank of Canada: September 2 rate decision; summary of deliberations (September 16); Governor Macklem’s Halifax speech (September 21); policy rate history and decision schedule; Financial Stability Report 2026; staff analytical note 2025-21 on payments at renewal; interest rates charged on new lending by chartered banks (monthly, to July 2026); upcoming events (Business Outlook Survey and Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, October 19).
• Market odds and forecasts: The Canadian Press via BNN Bloomberg (September 18); Bloomberg on Manulife’s call and Bloomberg’s economist survey (September 25); TD (September 23); CIBC (September 21); Scotiabank; RBC (September 11); National Bank (forecast of September 4); Bloomberg via Canadian Mortgage Trends on October 1 (odds about 40%) and October 6 (about a third; more than 100 basis points of hikes over 12 months); BMO (October 2); CIBC (October 6); Montreal Exchange CORRA futures (October 6).
• Economy: Statistics Canada, Consumer Price Index, August 2026 and Labour Force Survey, August 2026; July GDP (September 29); U.S. Federal Reserve (September 16); oil prices (September 28); U.S. jobs report and oil (Bloomberg, October 2); Statistics Canada 2026 to 2027 release schedule.
• Fixed rates and bond yields: Bank of Canada selected bond yields; Canadian Mortgage Trends (September 12, source of the Larock and Butler comments); Canadian Mortgage Trends on CIBC and TD (September 29), fixed rates and OIS pricing (October 1) and RBC (October 6).
• Borrowers, mortgage sizes and arrears: CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report (May 2026); CMHC average value of new mortgage loans (third quarter 2021 and fourth quarter 2025); CMHC 2026 Mortgage Consumer Survey; Equifax remarks reported by Canadian Mortgage Trends (September 23).
• Metro Vancouver: Greater Vancouver REALTORS, August 2026 market report and statistics package (benchmark prices and five-year changes); September 2026 market report (October 2).
• Okanagan: Association of Interior REALTORS market statistics, August 2026 release and statistical report (Central Okanagan); August 2021 benchmarks as reported by Castanet and Global News (September 3, 2021); September 2026 data release (October 5).
• Rules: OSFI straight-switch exemption (November 21, 2024); the Canadian Mortgage Charter; FCAC on renewing your mortgage, trigger rates and prepayment penalties; FCAC on home equity lines of credit; BCFSA on remuneration disclosure under the Mortgage Services Act (in force October 13, 2026).
• Lender policies: First National, RBC, Scotiabank, TD; early renewal: TD, RBC.

Rates as of October 22, on approved credit and subject to change. Corrections: [email protected].

Frequently asked questions

When is the next Bank of Canada rate announcement?

October 28, 2026, along with the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report. The last decision of the year is December 9, 2026, and the first of 2027 is January 27. As of October 6, markets put the odds of an October hike at about one in three, with roughly one hike priced by December 9.

What is the prime rate in Canada today?

4.45%. The big banks, including RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC and National Bank, set prime at the Bank of Canada’s policy rate, 2.25% since October 2025, plus 2.20%, and most other lenders follow. Prime moves within a day or two of any change in the policy rate.

How much does a 0.25% rate hike add to a variable mortgage payment?

With an adjustable payment, about $13 a month for every $100,000 you owe on a 25-year amortization, or about $64 a month on a $500,000 balance with 20 years left. With a fixed-payment variable, the payment stays the same and more of it goes to interest. One hike would take the 5-year variable on my October 14 sheet from 3.70% to 3.95%, still below every fixed term on that sheet (the lowest was 4.39% for two years).

What happens to my HELOC if the Bank raises rates?

HELOCs are priced off prime, so each 0.25% hike adds about $21 a month in interest for every $100,000 you owe. The HELOC rate on my sheet is 4.95% (prime plus 0.50%) as of October 22, against 3.70% (prime minus 0.75%) for the 5-year variable mortgage, a gap of 1.25 points on my October 14 sheet; a refinance prices at uninsured rates, 4.99% for a 5-year fixed. The revolving part of a HELOC can be up to 65% of your home’s value (80% with your mortgage), payments can be interest-only, and the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada notes the lender can change a HELOC’s rate at any time; federally regulated lenders must tell you in writing within 30 days. I compare the two in HELOC vs refinance.

How much will my payment go up if I took a five-year fixed in 2021?

On a typical 2021 rate of about 2.2%, renewing into today’s best five-year fixed raises the payment by roughly 20% to 25%. In my examples, a Kelowna-sized mortgage goes from $1,953 to $2,427 a month and a Vancouver-sized one from $2,472 to $3,071, at the best insured rates on my October 14, 2026 sheet.

Will fixed mortgage rates rise if the Bank of Canada hikes?

Not necessarily. Fixed rates follow the five-year Government of Canada bond yield, which already rose in September on expectations of hikes. They move again mainly if the decision changes what bond markets expect next.

Is a 3-year fixed a good middle ground right now?

It can be. The best 3-year fixed on my sheet is 4.54% against 4.69% for five years, as of October 22. You renew two years sooner, which pays off if rates ease by 2029 and costs you if they’re higher.

Can I renew my mortgage early without a penalty?

Usually from about 120 days before your maturity date, though windows vary by lender; TD and RBC both allow 120 days. A mortgage maturing in January 2027 is already inside that window, so you can lock in a rate now. Renewing before the window usually means breaking the mortgage or a blend-and-extend, so check the cost first.

Do I have to pass the stress test to switch lenders at renewal?

Not for a straight switch. Insured borrowers can switch without requalifying under the Canadian Mortgage Charter, and since November 21, 2024, uninsured borrowers moving the same balance and amortization of a stand-alone mortgage from one federally regulated lender to another don’t need the stress test either; mortgages in a combined plan or readvanceable line don’t qualify. Borrowing more or extending the amortization is a refinance, which is qualified at the higher of your contract rate plus 2% or 5.25%.

Can I switch my variable mortgage to a fixed rate?

Usually yes, at any time and without a penalty, into a fixed term at your lender’s current rate. The minimum new term varies: some lenders require a term at least as long as what you have left, TD requires at least three years (or what’s left, if shorter), and you generally can’t switch back.

Can I extend my amortization at renewal to lower my payment?

Sometimes. Your current lender may allow it at renewal, though on insured mortgages it’s usually limited to hardship cases. At a new lender, a longer amortization makes it a refinance, which has to pass the stress test. On the 2021 examples in this article, going back to 25 years cuts the payment increase by about two-thirds, but you pay more interest over the life of the mortgage.

How much does one rate hike cost on an average Kelowna or Vancouver mortgage?

About $61 a month in the Kelowna area and $72 in Metro Vancouver, on CMHC’s average new mortgage at the end of 2025 with a variable rate and an adjustable payment. Four hikes would add about $248 and $294.

Keep reading: renewal decisions

• Mortgage renewal in Kelowna: how I shop a renewal across 50+ lenders
• Mortgage renewal checklist for BC: what to do 120 days out
• How to switch lenders at renewal with no penalty: the straight-switch steps
• Mortgage renewal vs refinance in BC: when to take equity out, and when not to
• Mortgage renewal calculator: your new payment at today’s rates
• The 2026 renewal cliff: what Kelowna homeowners renewing this year face
• Today’s rates: fixed, variable and HELOC, updated weekly

Get a rate hold before October 28

If your mortgage matures in the next four months, send me your renewal letter, or just your balance, rate and maturity date. I’ll put a rate hold in place and show you fixed against variable on your own numbers, whether you’re in Kelowna, Vancouver or anywhere else in BC. Call 250-859-2100 or book a free 30-minute review. No credit pull until you say go, and on standard residential mortgages the lender pays the fee. From October 13, 2026, BC brokers must also disclose, on a BCFSA form, what the brokerage expects to be paid and by whom.